A Diagnosis of the "Health" of the Lead Market: SMM's Heavyweight Launch of the Downstream Lead Inventory Index [SMM Analysis]

SMM News on August 1: Inventory is defined as the various materials and resources reserved by enterprises or organizations during the production and operation process to meet production, sales, or consumption needs. Inventory also serves as a signal light for the supply-demand relationship. In the lead industry chain, it represents the dynamic balance result of supply and demand and is also a leading indicator for future price movements. The SMM Lead Research Team has meticulously constructed a monthly/weekly finished product inventory index system for downstream enterprises and dealers, closely tracking consumption dynamics in the lead market and committing to monitoring inventory dynamics in a multi-dimensional and multi-frequency manner, unlocking the transformation from static data to dynamic competitive advantages for you!

I. Absolute Value and Days of Downstream Inventory: How to Calculate
1. Methodology for Constructing SMM's Monthly Finished Product Inventory Index for Lead-Acid Battery Enterprises:
SMM's monthly finished product inventory for lead-acid battery enterprises = (absolute value of monthly production of lead-acid battery enterprises / number of days in the calendar month) * days of inventories for lead-acid battery enterprises. This index is derived through processing by SMM based on market exchanges and relying on SMM's internal database model.
2. Methodology for Constructing SMM's Monthly Days of Finished Product Inventory Index for Lead-Acid Battery Enterprises:
SMM's monthly days of finished product inventory for lead-acid battery enterprises = (absolute value of monthly inventory of lead-acid battery enterprises / absolute value of monthly production of lead-acid battery enterprises) * number of days in the calendar month. This index is derived through processing by SMM based on market exchanges and relying on SMM's internal database model.
SMM's monthly days of finished product inventory for lead-acid battery dealers. This index is derived through processing by SMM based on market exchanges and relying on SMM's internal database model.

II. Downstream Inventory: Usage Scenarios
Four-Stage Model (Taking the Lead Price Upswing Cycle as an Example):
1. Passive Destocking of Finished Products by Downstream Enterprises:
· Lead consumption recovery accelerates downstream raw material cargo pick-up.
· Finished product inventory declines, but enterprises do not increase production → prices bottom out and rebound.
2. Active Inventory Building by Downstream Enterprises:
· Enterprises anticipate sustained demand → expand raw material procurement.
· Inventory and prices rise simultaneously → bull market accelerates.
3. Passive Restocking of Finished Products by Downstream Enterprises:
· Demand peaks and pulls back → inventory accumulation due to production inertia.
· Prices stagnate → inflection point warning.
4. Active Destocking of Finished Products by Downstream Enterprises:
· Enterprises cut production and promote sales → inventory and prices fall simultaneously → bear market deepens.

III. Inventory Cycle Index: Release Time
Regular updates on monthly exports (the fifth working day of each month)
Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market exchanges, and relying on SMM's internal database models. These data are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.